Has the opening range breakout actually worked on $SDS? Over the last two years we backtested 1,275 opening range trades on ProShares UltraShort S&P500, covering the 5, 15 and 30-minute ranges, long and short. The full record is below, winners and losers both.
SDS opening range breakout win rates
| Opening range | Direction | Win rate | Trades | Expectancy (pts) | Avg win (pts) | Avg loss (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-minute | Long | 55% | 200 | 0.05 | 0.34 | -0.31 |
| 5-minute | Short | 49% | 199 | 0.02 | 0.35 | -0.31 |
| 15-minute | Long | 52% | 210 | 0.02 | 0.49 | -0.49 |
| 15-minute | Short | 54% | 225 | 0.03 | 0.48 | -0.51 |
| 30-minute | Long | 55% | 196 | 0.05 | 0.62 | -0.64 |
| 30-minute | Short | 51% | 245 | 0.00 | 0.61 | -0.63 |
How to read the SDS numbers
The strongest configuration was the 5-minute long break: 55% winners across 200 trades. The long side carried the edge overall: 54% winners versus 52% for the other direction. After wins and losses netted out, 6 of the 6 configurations carried positive expectancy per trade.
Backtest method
Entry is the break of the opening range: above the range high for longs, below the range low for shorts. The target projects one full range width from the break and the stop sits at the opposite side of the range, so risk and reward are both defined by the range itself. The window is the last 730 calendar days ending July 7, 2026, every qualifying trade counted, with no commissions or slippage modeled.
This is a historical record, not a prediction. Win rates drift as volatility regimes change, and a strong two-year record on $SDS does not guarantee the next break follows it. Use it as context for sizing and expectations, not as a signal.
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