ORB Statistics

BTI Opening Range Breakout Statistics: 2-Year ORB Win Rates

July 8, 2026

Has the opening range breakout actually worked on $BTI? Over the last two years we backtested 1,075 opening range trades on British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share, covering the 5, 15 and 30-minute ranges, long and short. The full record is below, winners and losers both.

BTI opening range breakout win rates

Opening range Direction Win rate Trades Expectancy (pts) Avg win (pts) Avg loss (pts)
5-minute Long 51% 203 0.00 0.19 -0.20
5-minute Short 52% 160 -0.00 0.17 -0.19
15-minute Long 57% 185 0.05 0.25 -0.21
15-minute Short 45% 164 -0.03 0.24 -0.26
30-minute Long 64% 198 0.07 0.24 -0.23
30-minute Short 47% 165 -0.01 0.26 -0.25
Every BTI opening range breakout over the 730 days ending July 7, 2026. Target and stop both one full range width.

How to read the BTI numbers

The strongest configuration was the 30-minute long break: 64% winners across 198 trades. The long side carried the edge overall: 57% winners versus 48% for the other direction. After wins and losses netted out, 3 of the 6 configurations carried positive expectancy per trade.

Backtest method

Entry is the break of the opening range: above the range high for longs, below the range low for shorts. The target projects one full range width from the break and the stop sits at the opposite side of the range, so risk and reward are both defined by the range itself. The window is the last 730 calendar days ending July 7, 2026, every qualifying trade counted, with no commissions or slippage modeled.

This is a historical record, not a prediction. Win rates drift as volatility regimes change, and a strong two-year record on $BTI does not guarantee the next break follows it. Use it as context for sizing and expectations, not as a signal.

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