ORB Statistics

UVIX Opening Range Breakout Statistics: 2-Year ORB Win Rates

July 8, 2026

Has the opening range breakout actually worked on $UVIX? Over the last two years we backtested 1,180 opening range trades on 2x Long VIX Futures ETF, covering the 5, 15 and 30-minute ranges, long and short. The full record is below, winners and losers both.

UVIX opening range breakout win rates

Opening range Direction Win rate Trades Expectancy (pts) Avg win (pts) Avg loss (pts)
5-minute Long 55% 210 -0.07 0.41 -0.64
5-minute Short 54% 155 0.09 0.67 -0.60
15-minute Long 48% 211 -0.12 0.72 -0.91
15-minute Short 53% 187 0.12 0.85 -0.71
30-minute Long 55% 184 0.08 0.98 -1.04
30-minute Short 51% 233 0.11 1.07 -0.89
Every UVIX opening range breakout over the 730 days ending July 7, 2026. Target and stop both one full range width.

How to read the UVIX numbers

The strongest configuration was the 5-minute long break: 55% winners across 210 trades. Long and short breaks won at the same overall rate (53%). After wins and losses netted out, 4 of the 6 configurations carried positive expectancy per trade.

Backtest method

Entry is the break of the opening range: above the range high for longs, below the range low for shorts. The target projects one full range width from the break and the stop sits at the opposite side of the range, so risk and reward are both defined by the range itself. The window is the last 730 calendar days ending July 7, 2026, every qualifying trade counted, with no commissions or slippage modeled.

This is a historical record, not a prediction. Win rates drift as volatility regimes change, and a strong two-year record on $UVIX does not guarantee the next break follows it. Use it as context for sizing and expectations, not as a signal.

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